October 15, 2024
United States:
Inflation, GDP Would Be Same Under Harris or Trump, Survey Says
The outlook for inflation and growth in the US would be roughly the same whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election, though economists in a Bloomberg survey give the vice president the edge on the economy overall.
A popular inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve — the personal consumption expenditures price index — is expected to rise an annualized 2.2% on average over the next four years under either candidate, according to the survey of 29 economists conducted Oct. 7 to 10. The median forecast for gross domestic product projects a 2% annualized growth rate on average no matter who wins.
United Kingdom:
UK Wage Growth at Two-Year Low Keeps BOE Rate Cut in Sight
UK wages grew at the slowest pace in more than two years over the summer, a sign of easing inflationary pressures that keeps the Bank of England on track to cut interest rates in November.
Average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.9% in the three months through August from a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. It was smallest increase since the second quarter of 2022 and in line with the median forecast of economists. Private-sector wage growth slowed to 4.8% from 5%.
Asia:
China Leaves Economists Wanting More Action to Defeat Deflation
China moved to further ramp up support for the economy, promising more aid for the slumping property sector and indebted local governments. But officials still haven’t convinced economists that they’re doing enough to defeat deflation.
At a highly anticipated briefing on Saturday, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an refrained from putting a price tag on China’s fiscal stimulus as investors expected, signaling that details would come when China’s legislature meets in the coming weeks. The supportive measures he did announce, however, gave little indication Chinese authorities felt any urgency to ramp up consumption, which many economists see as essential to reflating the economy and putting it on a more positive growth trajectory.
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