Mexico strengthened its position as the United States’ largest trading partner during the first half of 2026, with merchandise exports to the US reaching US$298.2 billion. This represented a 13.0 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2025, highlighting the continued strength of bilateral trade despite ongoing tariff measures and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Imports from the United States also increased, rising by 16.6 per cent to US$195.6 billion. As a result, Mexico recorded a trade surplus of approximately US$102.6 billion with the US during the first six months of the year, up 6.6 per cent year over year.

The strong trade performance comes ahead of the fourth round of negotiations for the first USMCA review, which is scheduled for early September. Discussions between Mexican and US officials have focused on trade concerns, regional supply chains and possible changes to the agreement, with both governments seeking to preserve North American economic integration while addressing areas of disagreement.

Trade has continued to expand despite a range of US tariff measures. Mexican products that do not comply with USMCA rules of origin are subject to tariffs of up to 25 per cent, while additional duties remain in place on automobiles, steel, aluminium and copper. Even with these restrictions, Mexico accounted for 16.5 per cent of total US trade during the first half of the year, ahead of Canada at 12.6 per cent and China at 6.2 per cent.

Mexico’s performance also stands out against broader US trade trends. Total US merchandise imports from all trading partners declined by 1.1 per cent to US$1.746 trillion during the January to June period, while exports increased by 15.0 per cent to US$1.239 trillion. This left the United States with an overall merchandise trade deficit of US$507.5 billion.

At the same time, trade patterns with other major partners continued to shift. US imports from China fell by 22.8 per cent, while exports to China declined slightly, reducing the bilateral trade deficit by 33.9 per cent. Trade with Canada grew more modestly, further reinforcing Mexico’s growing importance within US supply chains.

Mexico’s broader export performance was also strong. Global merchandise exports increased by 24.6 per cent year over year to US$389.7 billion during the first half of 2026. Most major export categories expanded, although agricultural exports declined by 4.0 per cent. Automotive exports still managed to increase by 1.0 per cent despite sector-specific US tariffs.

The country’s overall trade balance also improved significantly. Mexico recorded a US$4.09 billion trade surplus in June, bringing its cumulative surplus for the first half of the year to US$9.86 billion, compared with just US$1.43 billion a year earlier.

The figures underline Mexico’s continued resilience as a regional manufacturing and export hub. However, the next phase of trade growth will depend heavily on the outcome of USMCA negotiations, tariff policy and whether both countries can preserve the deeply integrated supply chains that continue to support bilateral commerce.

Source: (Mexico Business News)

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