Guyana’s economy continues to expand at one of the fastest rates globally, supported by rapidly rising oil production and broad-based growth across the non-oil economy. Real gross domestic product increased by more than 19 per cent in 2025, following average annual growth of nearly 40 per cent during 2023 and 2024.

Oil production exceeded expectations and surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, representing an increase of approximately 35 per cent within one year. Similar production levels were maintained during the first half of 2026, reinforcing the petroleum sector’s central role in Guyana’s economic transformation.

Importantly, the expansion was not limited to oil. The non-oil economy grew by approximately 14 per cent in 2025, led by construction, with agriculture, mining and manufacturing also making meaningful contributions. Although heavy rainfall affected activity in some industries during the first half of 2026, the broader growth trend remained positive.

The strong economic performance has also strengthened the labour market, with unemployment falling to 6.2 per cent by the end of 2025. Average inflation was contained at 3.3 per cent during the year, although price pressures increased by mid-2026 due to higher global food and energy costs.

Alongside the rapid expansion, Guyana’s fiscal and external positions improved. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed by nearly two percentage points to 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, as rising oil revenue more than offset weaker non-oil revenue. Continued accumulation within the Natural Resource Fund has also helped strengthen the country’s fiscal and external buffers.

Large public investments in infrastructure, education and healthcare are supporting non-oil growth and advancing the government’s wider development strategy. However, strong private investment and its high import requirements have kept demand for foreign currency elevated, contributing to continued tightness in the foreign exchange market.

Despite these pressures, Guyana’s banking sector remains well capitalised and liquid, with improving asset quality. Monetary conditions have also helped preserve price and exchange-rate stability, although further tightening may be required if domestic demand, credit growth or currency pressures intensify.

The medium-term outlook remains highly favourable. Oil production is expected to continue increasing as new fields begin operations and existing projects mature, while the non-oil economy is projected to grow by an average of approximately 7 per cent over the next five years. Higher Natural Resource Fund inflows are also expected as oil companies complete the recovery of their development costs.

Nevertheless, rapid growth brings risks that require careful management. Higher oil prices and additional discoveries could strengthen export earnings and public finances, but they could also intensify inflation, wage pressures and real exchange-rate appreciation. Climate-related shocks and the economy’s limited capacity to absorb rapidly rising expenditure remain additional concerns.

Maintaining fiscal discipline, improving the targeting of subsidies and prioritising productivity-enhancing investments will therefore be critical. Continued progress in economic diversification, governance, financial oversight and climate resilience will determine whether Guyana can convert its oil wealth into sustainable and broadly shared long-term development.

Source: (IMF)

Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

Company Disclosure – The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.