October 12, 2023
The forecast of Jamaica’s growth for 2023 has been cut by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as depicted in its ‘World Economic Outlook’ October 2023 publication. This resulted from the global long-term consequences of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. Additionally, the effects of monetary policy tightening necessary to reduce inflation, withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt, and extreme weather events.
IMF’s forecast for Jamaica for the current year is down to 2.0% from the 2.2% projected in April 2023. Consequently, the IMF expects the country’s economic growth to decline to 1.8% in 2024 from the 2.2% projected in April 2023.
Global growth is forecasted to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from an expected 3% this year. The forecast for next year is down marginally from the 3% it predicted in July of this year. The IMF expectation of 3% growth this year is down from 3.5% in 2022 but unchanged from its July projections.
The IMF highlighted, “Despite signs of economic resilience earlier this year and progress in reducing headline inflation, economic activity is still generally falling short of prepandemic (January 2020) projections, especially in emerging market and developing economies.”
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