October 21, 2025
Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is projected to grow by just 1% in 2025, well below the Caribbean average of 3.6%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This represents a significant downgrade from the IMF’s April forecast of 2.4%. Only Haiti, which is expected to contract by 3.1%, is set to perform worse in the region. The IMF also projects growth of just 1.2% for Trinidad and Tobago in 2026, again among the lowest in the Caribbean.
In contrast, Guyana is forecast to record strong expansion of 10.3% this year and 23% next year, buoyed by oil production. On average, Caribbean economies are expected to grow by 8.2% in 2025. The IMF projects inflation in Trinidad and Tobago will rise to 2.2% this year and 2% next year, compared with 0.7% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024.
According to the IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook, released yesterday, growth across Latin America and the Caribbean will remain steady this year before easing slightly next year. The report notes that inflation is moving toward targets at a slower pace and warns that rising public debt highlights the need for fiscal consolidation. The Fund said previous reforms have helped secure price stability, but lowering debt and improving fiscal management would strengthen monetary policy and support inflation goals. Structural reforms to raise productivity and improve business conditions are also seen as key to boosting long-term growth.
Globally, the IMF said economies are navigating policy shifts, persistent shocks, and high uncertainty. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will depend on each country’s exposure to global trade, remittances, commodities, and capital markets. While many economies are slowing, rebounds in some nations are expected to help sustain regional momentum in 2025. A slight deceleration is projected in 2026, with risks tilted to the downside.
The Fund observed that the global economy is adapting to a new policy landscape shaped by rising protectionism and fragmentation. After the United States imposed higher tariffs earlier this year, subsequent trade adjustments reduced some of the immediate impacts, though uncertainty remains high. The IMF revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% in April but later raised it to 3% following tariff reductions. Global growth is now projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
Source: (Trinidad Express)
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