June 18, 2024
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported that for May 2024, the point-to-point inflation rate was +5.2%; 0.1 percentage points lower than the 5.3% recorded for April 2023 to April 2024. However, for the month of May 2024, The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5%.
The main driver of the monthly increase (0.5%) was a 1.1% increase in the index of the ‘food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division, influenced mainly by the ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ class rising by 5.2%. This was attributed to increased prices for certain agricultural products, primarily vegetables, due to reduced supplies caused by dry weather conditions. Additionally, a 0.6% increase in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division also contributed to the rise in the inflation rate, owing to higher electricity prices. However, the inflation rate was slightly tempered by the index for the ‘Transport’ division, which fell by 0.1% due to lower petrol prices.
The 0.1% downward movement in the inflation rate to 5.2% between May 2023 and May 2024, relative to April 2023 and April 2024 was primarily influenced by a lower rate of increase the following divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (3.9%), ‘Transport’ (9.7%) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (3.8%).
The rise in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division was driven by a 3.7% increase in the ‘Food’ group. Key contributors to this increase were higher prices for oranges, ripe bananas, and pineapples, which significantly affected the ‘Fruits and Nuts’ class. Additionally, the ‘Cereals and Cereal Products’ class saw an upward trend largely due to increased prices for rice, bread, and other bakery products.
The ‘Transport’ division experienced a notable increase, primarily due to a 9.7 percent rise in the index for ‘Passenger Transport Services.’ This was largely the result of a significant 19% hike in fares for route and hackney carriage taxis implemented on October 15, 2023.
In the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division, the index rise was mainly due to a 3.1% increase in the ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ group. This increase was chiefly driven by higher electricity rates.
MAJOR CPI DIVISION MOVEMENTS
There was a 1.1% increase in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division, with the ‘Food’ group rising by 1.1% and the ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ group by 0.4%. The ‘Food’ group increase was primarily driven by a 5.2% rise in the ‘Vegetables, Tubers, Plantains, Cooking Bananas, and Pulses’ class due to higher prices for produce like lettuce, cabbage, carrots, and yellow yam, along with a 0.6% increase in the ‘Cereals and Cereal Products’ class mainly from higher bread prices. This was partly offset by a 2.0% decrease in the ‘Fruits and Nuts’ class due to lower prices for watermelons and pineapples. The ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ group saw increases in ‘Fruit and Vegetable Juices’ by 0.5%, ‘Water, Soft Drinks, and Other Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ by 0.4%, and ‘Coffee, Tea, Cocoa’ by 0.3%.
The point-to-point inflation rate for this division was 3.9%.
The index for the ‘Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics’ division increased by 0.1%, with both the ‘Alcoholic Beverages’ group and the ‘Tobacco’ group also experiencing a 0.1% rise.
The point-to-point inflation rate for this division was 3.7%.
The index for the ‘Clothing and Footwear’ division increased by 0.3%. The index for the ‘Clothing’ group rose by a similar 0.3%, while the index for the ‘Footwear’ group increased by 0.4%.
The point-to-point inflation rate for this division was 3.6%.
The index for ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ rose by 0.6%, primarily due to a 2.3% increase in the ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ group driven by higher electricity rates. This overall inflation rate was moderated by a 1.6% decrease in the ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling’ group due to lower water and sewage rates.
The point-to-point inflation rate for this division was 3.8%.
The index for the ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’ division increased by 0.1%. The main contributors to this increase were the rises in the indexes for ‘Furniture, Furnishings, and Loose Carpets’ (0.2%) and ‘Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance’ (0.1%).
The point-to-point inflation rate was 9.3%.
The index for the ‘Health’ division increased by 0.2%. The main contributor to this increase was the 0.3% rise in the index for the ‘Medicines and Health Products’ group, driven by higher prices for over-the-counter cough medications and prescribed painkillers.
The point-to-point inflation rate was 4.2%.
The index for the ‘Transport’ division decreased by 0.1%. This was due to a 0.8% fall in the index for the class ‘Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment,’ resulting from lower petrol prices.
The point-to-point inflation rate was 9.7%.
The index for ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’ increased by 0.1%. This was influenced primarily by higher prices for stationery supplies.
The point-to-point inflation rate was 4.9%.
The index for the ‘Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Good and Services’ division increased by 0.2%. This was mainly influenced by higher prices for some personal care products and personal grooming services.
The point-to-point inflation rate was 4.0%.
Individual divisions saw the following changes:
1. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages: (+1.1%)
2. Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics: (+0.1%)
3. Clothing and Footwear: (+0.3%)
4. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels: (+0.6%)
5. Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance: (+0.1%)
6. Health: (+0.2%)
7. Transport: (-0.1%)
8. Information and Communication: (0.0%)
9. Recreation, Sport, and Culture: (+0.1%)
10. Education: (0.0%)
11. Restaurants and Accommodation Services: (0.0%)
12. Insurance and Financial Services (0.0%)
13. Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods and Services: (+0.2%)
Disclaimer:
Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.
Company Disclosure – The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may affect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.