January 8, 2025
Mexico’s annual inflation rate likely fell in December, according to a Reuters poll of analysts released on Tuesday. This decline is fueling speculation that the central bank will continue cutting its benchmark interest rate, potentially by more than in recent decisions.
The median estimate from 12 analysts suggests that December’s annual headline inflation rate dropped to 4.28%, its lowest level since October 2023, though still above the central bank’s official target of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. Core inflation, which excludes particularly volatile food and energy prices, likely increased to 3.62% in December after 22 months of decline.
Last month, the central bank implemented a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate, marking its fifth reduction in 2024, bringing the rate down to 10.00%. The bank’s board noted that, given the progress on disinflation, larger downward adjustments could be considered in future meetings.
In an interview with Reuters, Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath mentioned that the central bank’s governing board might discuss a cut of up to 50 basis points in its first decision of 2025, scheduled for February 6.
In December alone, consumer prices likely rose by 0.40% from the previous month, while core prices are expected to have increased by 0.45%, according to the poll. INEGI, the national statistics institute, will release the official consumer price data for December on Thursday.
Source: (Reuters)
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