August 14, 2023
United States:
The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game to Try to Avoid a Recession
An increasing number of economists — including the Federal Reserve’s own staff — are predicting the US will escape a recession, though it’ll be well into 2024 before anyone can be sure of it.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he expects the central bank to navigate a path where the US economy expands with inflation rates falling back to the 2% target, though the task will be challenging.
Europe:
ECB Still Seen Delivering One Last Hike in September, Poll Shows
Unmoved by recent signs that inflation pressure is abating, economists continue to predict that the European Central Bank will deliver one final increase in interest rates next month.
The deposit rate will be lifted to 4% in September from 3.75% now, a Bloomberg poll showed. At the same time, respondents reckon officials will start cutting borrowing costs in March, a month earlier than they previously thought.
Asia:
India Inflation Rises to 15-Month High as Food Costs Rise
Retail inflation in July breached the upper-end of the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance level for the first time in five months due to surging food costs, reinforcing the central bank’s concern over uneven monsoon rains affecting crop production.
The consumer price index rose to a 15-month high of 7.44% from a year earlier, according to government data Monday. That’s faster than a median forecast for a 6.5% gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and a revised reading of 4.87% in June.
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