July 24, 2023
United States:
Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey
A strong majority of business economists now say the odds of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.
Some 71% of respondents reported such an outlook in results of the poll, published Monday. That marks a sharp turnaround from NABE’s previous survey in April, which showed an almost even split between those forecasting a downturn and those who were not.
Europe:
Russia’s Arctic Shipping Route Gets Busy With Oil Traffic to China
Three oil tankers will meet up shortly in the Arctic waters of the Kara Sea, signaling that the navigation season along Russia’s Northern Sea Route is open for business.
Two Aframax tankers, each hauling about 730,000 barrels of Urals crude from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, are heading east to Rizhao in China. A third similar-sized ship, sailing in ballast, is coming in the opposite direction, having started its latest voyage from the Chinese port of Yinkou, according to vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.
Asia:
China Holds Off on Major Stimulus as It Signals Property Easing
China’s top leaders signaled more support for the troubled real estate sector alongside pledges to boost consumption and resolve local government debt, though fell short of announcing large-scale stimulus to support the slowing economic recovery.
The ruling Communist Party’s 24-member Politburo — its top decision-making body led by President Xi Jinping — promised “counter-cyclical” policy, according to a readout published Monday by the official Xinhua News Agency. That suggested more economic support as well as an “adjustment” of restrictions in the property sector. Real estate has been slumping for two years, partly due to a government clampdown on corporate and household leverage.
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