June 6, 2024
United States:
US Payroll Gains Not as Robust as Reported, BLS Data Suggest
The US job market may be a lot less vibrant than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues seem to think.
Data published Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest payrolls might have grown about 60,000 less per month on average last year than the roughly 250,000 run-rate derived from the agency’s monthly employment report. The new figures, from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, cover more than 95% of US jobs. and are eventually used in annual revisions to the monthly data.
Europe:
Bonds Fall as ECB Inflation Outlook Lifts Euro: Markets Wrap
Treasuries joined a slide in global bonds as the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecasts after delivering a widely expected interest-rate cut. The euro rose.
On the eve of the US payrolls report, Wall Street also waded through a slew of data. Jobless claims topped estimates, US labor costs increased by less than previously reported and the trade deficit widened. ECB officials led by President Christine Lagarde lowered the key deposit rate by a quarter-point to 3.75%. They said the inflation outlook has improved “markedly,” though they’ll “keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary.”
Asia:
RBI Likely to Stay on Hold as Slim Modi Win Boosts Fiscal Risks
India’s central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold well into this year as a weak election win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party fans fears of fiscal populism.
The Reserve Bank of India will probably leave the benchmark rate at 6.5% for an eighth straight meeting on Friday, according to all 34 economists polled by Bloomberg. The six-member monetary policy committee is also expected to retain its stance.
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