March 27, 2026
United States:
Economists See War Pushing US Inflation Above 3%, Hurting Growth
Economists raised their estimates for US inflation through year-end, while trimming consumer spending, growth and employment projections as the war in Iran drives up fuel costs.
The personal consumption expenditures price index is now seen rising 3.1% on average this year, compared a prior estimate of 2.6%, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.
Europe:
EU Sees Risk of Stagflation Shock for Europe From Iran War
The European Union economy is at danger enduring low growth combined with high inflation because of the war in the Middle East, according to the bloc’s economy chief.
“It is clear that, in any scenario, we are at real risk of a stagflationary shock,” Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters on Friday after presenting estimates that would shave 0.4 percentage points off EU output this year in case of a short-lived war, and 0.6 percentage points in 2026 and 2027 compared with the previous forecast in autumn should the conflict be more protracted.
Asia:
BOJ’s New Natural Rate Estimate Won’t Alter Economists’ Views
The Bank of Japan’s new estimate for the neutral rate of interest, a key indicator showing how much room authorities have to lift rates, was little changed from a previous projection, and therefore won’t likely prompt economists to alter their views on the policy trajectory.
In a report released Friday, the BOJ estimated the range for the figure to be between minus 0.9% and plus 0.5%.
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