October 11, 2024
United States:
Bond Traders’ Big Week Ends With Fed Rate Cuts Even Less Certain
The bond market is growing less convinced by the day that the Federal Reserve will embark on two further interest-rate cuts this year.
Traders are pricing in roughly 20% odds that the Fed holds rates steady in either November or December. This time last week, even after Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, swaps still implied more than 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, likely via consecutive cuts.
United Kingdom:
UK Economy Saw Return to Growth Before Budget Jitters Took Hold
The UK economy returned to growth in August, putting Prime Minister Keir Starmer on track for a modest recovery before worries about his first budget began to weigh on sentiment.
Gross domestic product rose 0.2% from July, in line with economists’ expectations, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. Services, production and construction all expanded on the month.
Asia:
China Investors Expect $283 Billion of New Stimulus This Weekend
Investors and analysts are expecting China to deploy as much as 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus as Beijing seeks to shore up the world’s second-biggest economy and boost confidence.
That’s what they hope the country’s finance minister will announce at a highly anticipated briefing on Saturday, according to a majority of 23 market participants surveyed by Bloomberg. Most of the respondents expect the funding to come in the form of government bonds.
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