October 2, 2023
United States:
Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon
When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now.
A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s biggest economy will avoid recession.
Europe:
Italy’s Factories Seen ‘Trapped’ in Recession With No Way Out
Italy’s manufacturers just suffered a sixth successive monthly decline in activity that signals a deep industrial recession, according to a survey by S&P Global.
An index based on responses from purchasing managers stood at 46.8 in September, compared with 45.4 in August. While the gauge showed improvement and exceeded economist estimates, it remains clearly below the 50 level indicating contraction.
Asia:
China’s Precarious Economy Signals More Support Is Needed
China’s factories look to have stabilized for now, though the recovery has been far from swift and the momentum for growth may be in trouble without more policy support.
An official gauge of manufacturing activity returned to expansion in September for the first time in six months, a sign that stimulus may be taking root. But it’s not all smooth sailing: That index just barely cleared the dividing line between contraction and growth from the prior month, while a private gauge of activity in the sector underperformed and suggested the recovery isn’t on solid ground just yet.
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