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U.S. unemployment claims decreased for the week ended October 31
November 5, 2020

The seasonally adjusted initial claims, advance estimate, decreased by 7,000 to 751,000 for the week ending October 31 from the prior week’s revised level, according to the U.S. Department of Labour (DOL). The prior week’s level was revised from 751,000 to 758,000 up by 7,000. In comparison to the previous week’s average, the 4-week moving average was 787,000, a decrease of 4,000. Moreover, the preceding week’s average was revised up by 3,250 from 787,750 to 791,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 5.0% for the week ending October 24, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the prior week’s unrevised rate. Moreover, DOL stated that, “advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 24 was 7,285,000, a decrease of 538,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 67,000 from 7,756,000 to 7,823,000.” Relative to last week’s revised average, the 4-week moving average decreased by 827,250 to 8,244,500. Notably, there was an upward revision in the preceding week’s average by 18,500 from 9,053,250 to 9,071,750.

 

UNADJUSTED DATA

Based on the unadjusted advance estimate, there were 738,166 actual initial claims under state programs in the week ending October 31, a decline of 543 (or -0.1%) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 6,099 (or 0.8%) from the previous week. Furthermore, for the week ending October 31, 52 states observed 362,883 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

During the week ending October 24, the advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 4.7%, a 0.4 percentage point decline relative to the previous week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs fell by 537,898 (or -7.2%) to 6,951,731 from a week earlier. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 242 (or -0.003%) from the previous week.

A total of 21,508,662 persons claimed benefits in all programs for the week ended October 17, a decrease of 1,152,854 compared to the prior week.

Extended Benefits, during the week ending October 17, were accessible in the following 43 states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, the Virgin Islands, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

For the week ending the 24th of October, 2,171 former Federal civilian employees claimed for UI benefits, an increase of 436 relative to the previous week, whereas, 907 newly discharged veterans (+58) claimed for benefits.

However, for the week ending the 17th of October, 12,137 former Federal civilian employees claimed for UI benefits, an increase of 436 relative to the previous week, whereas 12,417 newly discharged veterans (-658) claimed for benefits.

DOL noted that, “during the week ending Oct 17, 51 states reported 9,332,610 individuals claiming Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits and 50 states reported 3,961,060 individuals claiming Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits.”

In the week ending October 17, Hawaii observed the highest insured unemployment rates of 11.3% followed by the Virgin Islands (9.6), California (9.5), Nevada (9.2), New Mexico (9.0), Georgia (7.6), Puerto Rico (7.6), District of Columbia (7.1), Massachusetts (6.9), and Louisiana (6.8).

The state that experienced the highest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 24 were Illinois (+6,190), Michigan (+5,442), Massachusetts (+2,483), Minnesota (+1,848), and Connecticut (+1,621), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-10,113), California (-7,700), Florida (-6,528), New York (-3,291), and Louisiana (-3,096).

Analyst Certification –The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

Company Disclosure –The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.

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