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U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.0% in January 2025

February 10, 2025

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.0%. Notably, employment trended up in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported these findings based on two monthly surveys: the household survey, which assesses labour force status, including unemployment by demographic characteristics, and the establishment survey, which measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.

Household Survey Data

In January, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.0%, with 6.8 million people unemployed. The rates for major worker groups, including adult men, adult women, teenagers, Whites, Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics, showed little change. The number of long-term unemployed remained at 1.4 million, making up 21.1% of all unemployed individuals.

Both the labour force participation rate (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.1%) remained unchanged. The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons was 4.5 million, indicating no significant change. These individuals preferred full-time jobs but were working part-time due to reduced hours or inability to find full-time employment.

The number of people not in the labour force who wanted a job was 5.5 million, with 1.6 million marginally attached to the labour force. Among them, 592,000 were discouraged workers who believed no jobs were available for them. These figures showed little change from the previous month.

Establishment Survey Data

In January, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 143,000, with notable job gains in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Health care added 44,000 jobs, particularly in hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, and home health care services. Retail trade saw an increase of 34,000 jobs, mainly in general merchandise and furniture stores, despite a loss in electronics and appliance retailers. Social assistance employment rose by 22,000, driven by individual and family services.

Government employment continued its upward trend with an addition of 32,000 jobs. However, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry experienced a decline of 8,000 jobs, primarily in support activities for mining. Other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, and transportation, showed little change in employment over the month.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 17 cents to $35.87, marking a 4.1 percent rise over the past year. The average workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours, with production and nonsupervisory employees seeing a decrease of 0.2 hour to 33.5 hours.

Revisions for November and December showed an additional 100,000 jobs combined, with November’s employment revised up by 49,000 to 261,000 and December’s by 51,000 to 307,000. These revisions resulted from additional reports and recalculations of seasonal factors.

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Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

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