Overseas Headlines – October 24, 2022

October 24, 2022


United States:

Most in NABE Survey Say US Already in Recession or May Be Soon

Almost two-thirds of respondents in a survey of business economists say the US is either already in a recession or has better-than-even odds it will be within the next year.

A National Association for Business Economics survey showed over half of the respondents view a recession as more probable than not, while another 11% indicated the economy is already in one. The survey of 55 NABE members conducted Oct. 3-10 also indicated slower demand, an easing in labor market tightness and a slight moderation in price pressures.



ECB Preps Another Big Hike as Focus Shifts to Where It Will Stop

The European Central Bank is priming another hefty hike in interest rates this week as the attention increasingly switches to how high it will eventually push.

A second straight three-quarter-point increase — an increment that appeared almost inconceivable earlier this year but is becoming the norm after three such moves by the Federal Reserve — is all but a done deal on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 1.5%.



Xi Starts Third Term With GDP Showing China Economy in Doldrums

China’s economic risks showed no signs of easing, with strict Covid controls and a property slump continuing to weigh on growth and weaker global demand curbing exports, underlining the challenges President Xi Jinping faces as he begins a third term as leader.

In data delayed almost a week, the statistics bureau’s figures showed gross domestic product rebounded to 3.9% in the third quarter from almost stagnant growth in the second quarter when Shanghai and other cities were in lockdown. The pickup was fueled by increasing investment in infrastructure, though retail sales weakened and unemployment increased.




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