September 11, 2023
United States:
The Mighty American Consumer Is About to Hit a Wall, Investors Say
After staving off recession for longer than many thought possible, the US consumer is finally about to crack, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
More than half of 526 respondents said that personal consumption — the most important driver of economic growth — will shrink in early 2024, which would be the first quarterly decline since the onset of the pandemic. Another 21% said the reversal will happen even sooner, in the last quarter of this year, as high borrowing costs eat into household budgets while Covid-era savings run down.
Europe:
Germany’s Stop-Start Economic Motor Is Probably in Reverse Again
Germany’s industrial malaise is probably acute enough to have dragged the economy back into a contraction during the current quarter, forecasters say.
A monthly survey by Bloomberg shows gross domestic product is now anticipated to fall 0.1% in the three months through September before retracing that deterioration toward year-end.
Asia:
China Shows Signs of Stability as Credit, Inflation Improve
China’s credit demand improved, deflationary pressures eased and the yuan rallied, adding to a recent trickle of signs that the economy and financial markets may be stabilizing after a sharp downturn.
The strong credit data published Monday showed recent steps to bolster the real estate market may be starting to lift household demand for mortgages, while corporate loans also picked up. The yuan gained after the central bank escalated its defense of the currency.
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