May 29, 2024
According to preliminary estimates from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), for the January – March 2024 quarter, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.9% relative to the corresponding quarter of 2023.
The performance for the January to March 2024 quarter was influenced by several key factors:
- Increased external demand, driven by the economic growth of Jamaica’s main trading partners, benefiting the Transport, Hotels & Restaurants, and Other Services industries.
- Higher levels of business and consumer confidence.
- Increased agricultural output, due to higher yield per hectare and more hectares harvested.
- Expanded capacity utilization at alumina refineries, leading to higher alumina production.
The Goods Producing Industry is estimated to have increased by 3.0%, due to improvements in the Agriculture (+7.7%), Mining & Quarrying (+24.8%) and Manufacturing (+2.0%) industries. These improvements outweighed contractions recorded for the Construction (-4.5%) industry.
The improved performance for the Goods Producing Industry stemmed from favorable weather conditions, increased output of Alumina and Crude Bauxite and growth in both the Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Other Manufacturing sub-industries.
The Services Industry was estimated to have grown by 1.6%, relative to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This reflected higher Real Value Added for most industries, Electricity & Water Supply (+6.7%), Transport, Storage & Communication (+1.4%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery (+0.9%), Finance & Insurance Services (+1.5%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (+1.0%), Hotels and Restaurants (+6.3%) and Other Services (+1.0%). The Producers of Government Services industry fell by 0.3%.
The improved performance for the Services Industry was primarily driven by travel and tourism, along with a general increase in electricity demand due to expanded economic activity.
Outlook
For April–June 2024, the economic growth prospects for Jamaica are positive, with an anticipated growth rate of 1.5% to 2.5% compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is expected to be driven by:
- Continued strengthening of the Mining & Quarrying industry due to higher capacity utilization at alumina refineries.
- Increased domestic demand, supported by high employment levels.
- Strengthening in the global economy, boosting external demand for Jamaica’s goods and services.
For Fiscal Year 2024/25, projected growth is between 1.0% and 3.0%, with all industries expected to grow. This period marks a new growth phase as Jamaica surpasses pre-COVID-19 output levels, led by growth in the Hotels & Restaurants, Other Services, Transport, Storage & Communication, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, and Manufacturing industries.
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