PIOJ’S PRESS BRIEFING April – June 2017

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ)

Review of Economic Performance

April – June 2017

According to the PIOJ, real GDP grew by 0.3% relative to the comparative quarter in 2016. This was attributed to an estimated increase of 1.2% in the Services Industry, which outweighed a 2.5% decline in the Goods Producing Industry.

Within the Goods Producing Industry, there was a decline in real value added for the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing down 8.5% and Mining & Quarrying down 10.5% while Manufacturing and Construction grew by 2.4% and 1.5% respectively.

Moving to the Services Industry, all subcategories of the industry recorded growth except Government Services which remained flat. On the other hand, Industries registering the greatest growth were Hotels and Restaurants (8.0%), Finance & Insurance Services (1.5%), and other Services (1.5%).

For the January to June 2017 period PIOJ reported that real value added was projected to have increased by 0.2%. The service industry was estimated to have expanded by 0.8%, while the Goods Producing Industry was estimated to have declined by 1.7%. All industrial sectors with the exception of Mining and Quarrying, Agriculture, and Producer of Government Services were projected to have grown during the six months period.

The PIOJ projects a growth rate of 2-3% for the 2017/2018 fiscal year, while growth for the third quarter is projected at 1-2% relative to the third quarter of 2016.

Change in Gross Domestic Product and Contribution to Growth at Constant Prices

% Change % Point Contribution
Total GDP

 

Goods Producing Industry

 

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

 

Mining and Quarrying

Manufacture

Construction

 

Services Industry

 

Electricity and Water Supply

Transportation, Storage and Communication

Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair

 

Finance & Insurance Services

Real Estate, Renting & Business Services

Producers of Government Services

 

Hotels & Restaurants

Other Services

Measured (FISIM)

 

0.3

 

-2.5

 

-8.5

 

-10.5

2.4

1.5

 

1.2

 

0.3

0.5

 

0.5

 

1.5

0.5

 

0.0

 

8.0

1.5

1.5

0.3

 

-0.6

 

-0.7

 

-0.2

0.2

0.1

 

1.0

 

0.0

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.2

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.5

0.1

0.0



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Macroeconomic Highlights:

Inflation for the quarter was 1.1% according to the PIOJ. This was attributed to increases in the divisions Transport (up 2.4%), and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (up 1.3%).

There was also improvement in the labour market according to the PIOJ. This, as the total labour force as at April 2017 increased by 17,700 persons to 1,371,600 persons compared to 1,204,800 in 2016. In addition, the unemployment rate for April 2017 was 12.2% compared with 13.7% in January 2016.

Post Quarter Prospects

With regards to “Post Quarter Prospects,” PIOJ noted that, “for July 2017 total electricity consumption remained flat relative to July 2016, while provisional data indicated that airport arrivals increased by 10.8% to 234,051 passengers.” Inflation of 0.6% was recorded for July 2017. This reflected higher indices for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Transport.  In contrast there was a decrease in the production of crude bauxite and alumina.

2017-08-31T21:52:55+00:00