September 30, 2026
Venezuela’s oil production could rise to around 1.8 million barrels per day by 2030 as international operators expand their presence and investment begins to return to the country’s upstream sector. According to Rystad Energy, most of the near-term growth is expected to come from existing fields rather than large new developments, making the pace of rehabilitation critical to the recovery.
Rystad expects production to reach approximately 1.6 million barrels per day by 2028 before climbing to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2030, provided capital, drilling capacity and oilfield services expand sufficiently. The outlook reflects growing interest from international companies, alongside a gradual reopening of assets that have underperformed after years of limited investment.
Existing fields offer the fastest route to higher output because much of the necessary infrastructure is already in place. Workovers, well reactivations, infill drilling and facility rehabilitation can restore production more quickly than large new projects, which require significantly more capital and longer development timelines.
North American Blue Energy Partners illustrates the potential of this approach. The company has reported that production across its Venezuelan operations increased from about 18,000 barrels per day to more than 200,000 barrels per day in roughly two years, supported by approximately US$1 billion in investment.
Rystad expects companies such as NABEP, Chevron, Eni, GeoPark and other operators to account for much of the additional supply through the end of the decade. However, achieving the projected production levels will require a substantial expansion in drilling capacity.
The consultancy estimates that Venezuela could need around 50 active drilling rigs by 2028 and close to 80 by 2030 to support its modeled production trajectory. That represents a major increase from the two active rigs reported by Baker Hughes in August. Venezuela’s Hydrocarbons Ministry has suggested that as many as 93 rigs could be required by 2028, highlighting the scale of the challenge.
The capacity gap extends beyond drilling equipment. Venezuela will also need stronger oilfield services, reliable infrastructure, skilled labour and sustained access to capital if production is to rise consistently. Without those supporting elements, even existing fields may struggle to reach their full potential.
Larger developments in the Orinoco Belt are expected to contribute more meaningfully over the longer term. These projects require new acreage development, broader drilling programmes and additional infrastructure, making them slower to bring online than brownfield opportunities.
Rystad’s upside scenario sees Venezuelan production reaching around 2.6 million barrels per day by 2035, with brownfield and greenfield projects contributing roughly equal shares of the increase.
The outlook therefore points to significant production potential, but the recovery will depend on execution. Sustained investment, infrastructure rehabilitation and the rebuilding of Venezuela’s upstream supply chain will determine whether the country can convert its large resource base into a meaningful and lasting increase in oil output.
Source: (Oil Now)
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