Monthly deflation rate of 1.6% for January 2021

February 23, 2021

Consumer Price Index – January 2021

According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) the consumer price index for January 2021 was 107.3 resulting in deflation rate of 1.6%, when compared to the previous month’s inflation rate of 1.3%. STATIN noted that, “The main contributor to this decrease was a 4.6% fall in the index for the heaviest weighted division, ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ and a 0.8% decrease in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division.” This was however tempered by an increase of 0.7% in the index for the division ‘Transport’.

The index for the division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ fell by 4.6% for January 2021. The group ‘Food’ fell by 4.8% whilst ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ increased by 0.4%. The decline in the ‘Food’ group was attributable to a 17.8% fall in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ and a 5.6% decline in the class ‘Fruits and nuts’ due to lower prices for agricultural produce such as tomato, lettuce, cabbage, orange and pineapple. The decrease in the index for the division was however moderated by increases in the index of most of the other classes, notably: ‘Cereal and cereal products’ 0.5% and ‘Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals’ 0.4%. For the group ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, the index for all three classes rose: ‘Fruit and vegetable juices’ by 0.4%, ‘Coffee, Tea, Cocoa’ by 0.5% and ‘Water, Soft drinks and Other non-alcoholic beverages’ by 0.3%.

The ‘Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics’ division grew by 0.2% for January 2021, resulting from increased prices within the ‘Alcoholic Beverages’ group which moved upwards by 0.3%. While the division for ‘Clothing and Footwear’ observed an increase of 0.5% in its index for January 2021. In the index, the groups ‘Clothing’ and ‘Footwear’ climbed by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively.

The index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division recorded a 0.8% decline influenced by reduction of rates for electricity which led to a 3.1% fall in the index for the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. The overall move was moderated by the 1.9% rise in the index ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling’ caused by higher water and sewage rates.  ‘Maintenance, Repair and Security of the Dwelling’ also saw an increase of 0.9%.

Inflation of 0.4% was recorded for the division ‘Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance’. All groups within this division rose as a result of higher prices for household items: ‘Household Textiles’ went up by 0.5%; ‘Tools and Equipment for House and Garden’ and ‘Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance’ each moved up by 0.4%; ‘Furniture, Furnishings, and Loose Carpets’ up by 0.3%, while the index for ‘Household Appliances’ rose by 0.2%.

The division for ‘Health’ recorded an increase of 0.4% in its index for January 2021. The main contributing factor to this upward movement were increases in the groups ‘Medicines and Health Products’ and ‘Outpatient Care Services’ which increased by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively.

The index ‘Transport’ rose by 0.7%. According to STATIN this was largely due to higher petrol prices.  The ‘Information and Communication’ group rose by 0.3% for January 2021 because of higher prices for some information processing equipment.

The ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’ division registered a 0.4% rise for January 2021. The factor which contributed to this movement was the 0.5% increase in the group ‘Newspapers, Books and Stationery’. The upward trend was due to higher newspaper prices. STATIN highlighted a 0.1% increase in the ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ for January 2021 due to higher prices for meals consumed away from home.

Lastly, the index for the ‘Insurance and Financial Services’ division rose by 4.3% for the period under review. This was due to increases in the cost of motor vehicle insurance.

The movement in the index for fiscal year-to-date was 3.4% and the point- to-point was 4.7% as at January 2021. The Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area, Rural Areas and Other Urban Centres reported deflation 1.8%, 1.5% and 1.7% respectively.

Individual divisions saw the following changes:

  1. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages: (-4.6%)
  2. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco: (0.2%)
  3. Clothing and Footwear: (0.5%)
  4. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels: (-0.8%)
  5. Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance: (0.4%)
  6. Health: (0.4%)
  7. Transport: (0.7%)
  8. Information and Communication: (0.3%)
  9. Recreation, Sport and Culture: (0.4%)
  10. Education: (0.5%)
  11. Restaurants and Accommodation Services: (0.1%)
  12. Insurance and Financial Services (4.3%)
  13. Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods and Services: (0.7%)




Analyst Certification -The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

Company Disclosure -The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.