February 2, 2022
The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9.1% across its 19 Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs) in 2022, accelerating the region’s economic recovery which started in 2021.
The favourable outlook is anchored by an expected surge in the GDP of commodity-exporting economies by an estimated 17.5% on account of strong growth in Guyana (47.5%), emanating from increased oil and gas production, and a resurgence in energy production in Trinidad and Tobago as supply-side constraints are alleviated. Higher international prices for crude oil should translate into revenue windfall.
Service-exporting BMCs are forecasted to gain momentum, growing at an average rate of 4.8%, reflecting the continued inflow of international visitors. It is anticipated that this rebound is likely to strengthen during 2022 as restrictions ease, on account of strengthened protective health measures. However, the return of international passenger arrivals will depend on the acceleration of vaccination rates; effective management of the pandemic without resorting to full and lengthy lockdowns; and continued confidence in protocols established for safe travel to the region.
“A key lesson from the impact of the pandemic is that those countries entering the pandemic on a strong macro-fiscal footing fared better in weathering the headwinds. As such, countries are redoubling efforts to achieve debt sustainability despite extant challenges. Many countries are implementing programmes to achieve sustainability with support from the international financial institution community, including from CDB. Others are doing so outside of supported programmes but have established explicit fiscal anchors to function as platforms for macroeconomic policy frameworks.” said CDB Director of Economics Ian Durant at the Bank’s Annual News Conference held virtually today.
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