December 17, 2021
The Caribbean region’s tourism vulnerability to the pandemic will continue to impact its full economic recovery as source markets increasingly restrict travel due to a fast spreading and little-understood Omicron variant. Hence a number of islands are being encouraged to strengthen their lagging vaccine access and uptake.
Being among the most tourism-dependent in the world, the Caribbean region was predicted to be among the hardest hit by the pandemic’s global fallout. The World Travel & Tourism Council had projected the economic impact of Covid on the islands to result in a $42 billion loss in gross domestic product and 1.9 million jobs lost in 2020.
Those numbers from the pandemic’s first year weren’t far off the mark, but the region has also recovered faster than any other part of the world in 2021. Caribbean travel and tourism’s contribution to gross domestic product is expected to rise more than 47 percent this year, while the global economy will see a 37 percent increase in contribution from travel and tourism. Advanced bookings of hotel stays and airline ticketing for 2022 also point to a potential recovery of more than 70 percent of 2019 levels. This was the highlight that the Caribbean Tourism Hotel Association shared during its 2022 winter outlook report.
Though the region is recovering well the forecast also comes on the heels of the Omicron variant’s emergence in late November and the outlook doesn’t account for the impact and repercussions from a potential fresh round of global travel restrictions, which are unfolding by the day in source markets such as Canada and Europe as infections rise at a rapid pace.
In fact, ticketing to the Caribbean experienced a drop for a handful of top destinations following the Omicron announcement, data on holiday travel ticketing from ‘ForwardKeys’ shows. Destinations including the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Aruba and the Bahamas all experienced a decrease in bookings between late November and early December, as compared to 2019 levels.
At least nine destinations are expected to surpass 2019 levels between December 17 and January 2 as of current Christmastime international flight confirmations. But it’s too early to determine how much Omicron might impact those plans and additional flights going into 2022 given the fluidity of the pandemic, particularly if re-entry rules mount for travelers or if the variant proves harmful to the region’s destinations with low Covid vaccination rates.
As governments in major source markets such as Canada, which strongly advised against overseas travel on Wednesday, and parts of Europe continue to weigh tougher restrictions amid a rapidly spreading variant, the Caribbean’s tourism rebound in 2022 hangs in the balance.
Disclaimer:
Analyst Certification -The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.
Company Disclosure -The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.