September 23, 2022
Global economic activity is still being impacted by high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and persistent supply-related challenges. Outside the euro area, the global real GDP is expected to rise by 2.9% in 2022, 3.0% in 2023, and 3.4% in 2024, according to the September 2022 ECB staff macroeconomic projections. This outlook is less optimistic than the Eurosystem staff’s macroeconomic projections for June 2022, and it implies that this year and next year’s global economic growth will be slightly below the long-term average as both advanced and emerging market economies experience slower economic activity.
Although there are still strains on supply chain, a lower demand outlook and better supply have helped to ease those tensions. In keeping with global development, the outlook for international trade and foreign demand in the euro area has gotten worse in comparison to June projections. Amid rising commodity prices, persistent supply constraints, still relatively robust demand, and tight labor markets, global inflationary pressures are still widespread and elevated. However, it is anticipated that these pressures will lessen as GDP slows and commodity markets stabilize. The balance of risks around the baseline estimates is biased to the downside for global GDP and to the upside for global inflation in an environment of high uncertainty.
With the removal of the pandemic related restrictions, the euro area economy expanded by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2022. This growth was primarily driven by high consumer spending on contact-intensive services. As more individuals traveled over the summer, nations with significant tourism industries profited particularly. Businesses have experienced high energy costs and persistent supply shortages, but the latter have been progressively improving. The Governing Council anticipates that the economy will significantly slow down over the course of this year, despite the fact that robust tourism has supported economic development during the third quarter. This is due to four key factors. First, the economy as a whole is facing headwinds from high inflation, which are being exacerbated by disruptions in the gas supply. Second, the robust increase in service demand that accompanied the economy’s reopening will wane over the ensuing months. Third, the euro area economy will receive less assistance as a result of the declining global demand, which will also be accompanied by tighter monetary policy in many major nations, and the deteriorating terms of trade. Fourth, uncertainty is still high and confidence levels are plummeting.
The labour market continues to thrive with employment increasing by more than 600,000 people in the second quarter of 2022 and hours worked surpassing their pre-pandemic levels.
The ECB staff’s baseline macroeconomic projections for September 2022 are on the assumption that high gas prices and preventive energy conservation measures will restrain gas demand. Growth is anticipated to pick up in the medium term despite less favourable financing conditions as the energy market rebalances, uncertainty diminishes, and supply bottlenecks are overcome.
In the years leading up to 2024, a steady improvement in the euro area budget balance is predicted. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty around the budgetary estimates mainly related to the Russia-Ukraine war and developments in the energy markets. The overall Stability and Growth Pact general escape clause should be extended to the end of 2023, according to the European Commission which will allow fiscal policies to adjust to changing circumstances where necessary.
The Bank of England has stated that fiscal support measures to lessen the effects of rising energy prices should be short-term and aimed at the most vulnerable people and businesses. The goal of structural policy should be to increase the growth potential and resilience of the euro region.
Disclaimer:
Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.
Company Disclosure – The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.