October 17, 2019
Brent oil prices decreased by 0.51% or US$0.30, as prices decreased this week relative to the prior week. Oil traded on October 17, 2019 at a price of US$58.80 per barrel relative to US$59.10 on October 10, 2019. Brent oil began the year at US$54.91 per barrel.
87 Octane prices increased this week by 2.12% (JMD$2.66). Additionally, 90 Octane rose by 2.08% or (JMD$2.66) this week. 87 Octane and 90 Octane opened the year at J$116.75 and J$119.59 respectively and now trades at J$127.94 and J$130.78 per litre respectively.
Figure 1: Petrojam, U.S. Gulf Coast Conventional Gasoline Regular and Brent Crude Oil Price History
This Week in Petroleum
EIA forecasts lower crude oil prices despite tighter global liquid fuels balances
On October 17, 2019, it was noted that, “The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts lower crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2019 and in 2020 despite tighter global balances. The tighter balances are largely the result of unprecedented short-lived loss of global supply following the September 14 attacks on crude oil production and processing infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. The production declines contribute to overall stock draws in the second half of 2019 with a relatively large stock draw in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, however, EIA forecasts global supply growth will outpace global demand growth, resulting in an inventory build, offsetting some of the third quarter draws (Figure 1). EIA lowered its crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2019 by $1 per barrel (b) to $59/b, reflecting current price trends, and lowered its crude oil price forecast for 2020 by $2/b to average $60/b because of expected supply growth.”
U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices decrease
“The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price rose less than 1 cent from the previous week to $2.65 per gallon on October 7, 26 cents lower than the same time last year. The West Coast price rose by nearly 10 cents to $3.64 per gallon, and gasoline prices in California continued to rise, increasing by 14 cents to $4.09 per gallon, 55% higher than the national average and 39 cents higher than the same time last year. The Midwest price increased by more than 1 cent to $2.50 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price increased by less than 1 cent, remaining at $2.71 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price fell by more than 4 cents to $2.28 per gallon, and the East Coast price fell by 2 cents to $2.49 per gallon.”
“The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell nearly 2 cents to $3.05 per gallon on October 7, 34 cents lower than a year ago. The East Coast and Gulf Coast prices each fell by more than 2 cents to $3.04 per gallon and $2.80 per gallon, respectively, the Midwest price fell by 2 cents $2.97 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain price decreased 1 cent to $3.02 per gallon, and the West Coast price decreased by less than 1 cent to $3.64 per gallon.”
Inventories for Propane/propylene rise
There was an increase in U.S. propane/propylene stocks last week by 1.0 million barrels to 100.8 million barrels as of October 4, 2019. The Gulf Coast inventories climbed by 1 million barrels, while Midwest inventories rose slightly. Inventories for the East Coast fell 0.9 million barrels, as Rocky Mountain/West Coast fell slightly, remaining virtually unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 4.4% of total propane/propylene inventories.
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