September 28, 2023
According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany is expected to experience the lowest inflation level since the war in Ukraine began. The inflation rate in September 2023 is anticipated to be +4.5% relative to September 2022. Notably, the last time a lower inflation rate was registered was in February 2022, when it stood at +4.3%. The inflation rate in August 2023 was +6.1%. Based on data provided so far, Destatis predicts that consumer prices will increase by 0.3% for the month of September 2023, as it did in August. Core inflation in September is expected to be +4.6% (August 2023: +5.5%).
Food prices continued to rise at a faster-than-average rate (+7.5%) in September 2023 relative to September 2022. However, the increase in energy prices, at +1.0%, was significantly smaller than the year-on-year change rate of the overall index. One of the factors is a base effect compared with September 2022, which was influenced by the Federal Government’s elimination of the fuel discount, which was a part of their relief package. Additionally, the discontinuation of the 9-euro ticket in September 2022, which was available from June through August 2022, has a base effect on the growth of prices in the services sector, which rose +4.0% on the same month of the preceding year.
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