Inflation Expectations Survey

The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) released its expectations for inflation based on a survey conducted between June 5th and July 14th 2017 and had 304 respondents. June’s survey indicated the expected inflation rate for 2017 is 2% in line with expectations recorded in the previous survey. Expectations dipped from the 2.3% expected subsequent to March’s survey (see graph below). Over the past three surveys, a decreasing trend was observed for the calendar year forecast and calendar expectation.

Notably the expected rate of 2% for 2017 was below the point to point inflation rate in June 2017 of 4.4%. The survey also highlighted respondents inflation expectation twelve months ahead, which declined to 3.5% from 4% recorded in the previous survey.  Additionally, according to BOJ, “The perception of inflation control improved in the June 2017 survey relative to the previous survey.” Businesses’ perception of inflation control improved which saw the index climbing to 303.6 in the current survey compared to 270.4 in the previous survey (see graph below). The improved sentiment was due primarily to a growth in the proportion of respondents who were “satisfied” with how inflation is being controlled. Approximately 16.9% and 5.2% of respondents perceived inflation control as “dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” respectively, which was down from the previous month’s survey.


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