June 15, 2023
United States:
Bond Traders Step Up Bets the Fed Will Steer US Economy Into Recession
Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession.
Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries led a selloff Thursday, while longer-date bonds lagged, a day after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to raise interest rates by another half-point this year following the first pause in the central bank’s 15-month hiking campaign. That sent the yield-curve inversion, as measured by the gap between two- and 10-year securities, to 95 basis points — a level last sustained in March — and approaching this cycle’s 109-basis-point extreme.
Europe:
Europe Gas Spikes as Major Dutch Gas Site Set to Close
European natural gas prices spiked as the Netherlands is set to announce it will close Europe’s biggest gas site later this year.
Benchmark futures soared as much as 24% on Thursday to their highest level since early April. Prices are now jumping for a third consecutive day as prolonged outages and hot weather across the continent spark concern over supplies.
Asia:
China’s Recovery Weakens as Industrial, Retail Activity Slow
China’s economic recovery weakened in May as growth in industrial output and retail sales slowed, putting pressure on policymakers to step up stimulus.
The figures came after the People’s Bank of China cut the interest rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.65% to stimulate the economy. The central bank reduced its short-term rates earlier this week.
Disclaimer:
Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.
Company Disclosure – The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.