March 15, 2024
United States:
Fed Seen Sticking With Three 2024 Cuts Despite Higher Inflation
A recent pickup in inflation isn’t likely to shift Federal Reserve policymakers’ forecasts for three interest-rate cuts this year and four in 2025, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range for a fifth consecutive meeting next week, with policymakers reducing rates for the first time in June, economists say. A solid majority of survey respondents see Fed officials penciling in three or more cuts in 2024, while more than a third expect two or fewer.
Europe:
ECB’s Guindos Says Inflation Headed to 2% But Wages Still a Risk
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos reiterated that inflation is returning to the 2% target, though wage pressures still pose risks.
Speaking Thursday evening in Barcelona, Guindos flagged increases of about 5% in salaries alongside limited productivity that could yet reignite consumer prices.
Asia:
China Economy Likely Had Muted Start as 5% GDP Goal in Focus
China’s economic activity was likely mixed at the start of the year with property remaining a major drag, raising doubts about the nation’s ability to gain momentum and hit an ambitious growth target of around 5%.
Data due Monday is expected to show year-on-year growth in retail sales and industrial output slowing compared to December, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Stripping out base effects, momentum was probably little changed. Property development investment is seen plunging as the sector fails to mount a meaningful turnaround.
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