April 16, 2020
Standard and Poor’s (S&P), today, April 16, 2020, affirmed Jamaica’s B+ long term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings, and revised its outlook from stable to negative.
According to S&P, the revision in outlook reflects the impact of a presumed prolonged shock from the on-going global Corona Virus (Covid-19) health crisis on the Jamaican economy. S&P estimates that the pandemic will negatively impact GDP and the external and fiscal accounts, due largely to significant declines in tourism and related activities and an overall reduction in foreign exchange earnings and tax revenues.
S&P projects that the economic contraction is likely to be more moderate than in many Caribbean sovereigns, due to the relatively higher level of diversification of the Jamaican economy. It is the Agency’s expectation that economic recovery will start to pick up in 2021 with full recovery by 2022-23, however, this will be dependent on the recovery of Jamaica’s close economic partners.
Dr. the Honourable Nigel Clarke, Minister of Finance and the Public Service, in commenting on the rating action said, “At this unprecedented time of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is significant that another international credit rating agency, S&P, has maintained Jamaica’s credit rating at B+even as several other countries have had their ratings downgraded. The Covid-19 pandemic will certainly deliver a significant economic shock but Jamaica has options that many countries do not have. That is a good thing.”
On April 9, 2020, the Government of Jamaica proactively implemented a $10.0 billion spending stimulus package under a COVID-19 Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) Programme to cushion the shock of COVID-19 on lives and businesses. The CARE Programme is a temporary cash transfer programme aimed at reducing the economic impact of COVID-19 on small and micro businesses and individuals, particularly the most vulnerable.
Analyst Certification -The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.
Company Disclosure -The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.