U.S October unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9%

November 03, 2023

In October, total nonfarm payroll employment in the United States increased by 150,000, and the unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 3.9 percent. Job gains were observed in the health care, government, and social assistance sectors, while employment in manufacturing decreased due to strike activity. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported these findings based on two monthly surveys: the household survey, which assesses labor force status, including unemployment by demographic characteristics, and the establishment survey, which measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.

Household Survey Data

In October, the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent, with 6.5 million unemployed individuals. These figures have increased slightly since their lows in April, rising by 0.5 percentage points and 849,000, respectively. Unemployment rates for different demographic groups showed little change in October, with adult men at 3.7 percent, adult women at 3.3 percent, teenagers at 13.2 percent, Whites at 3.5 percent, Blacks at 5.8 percent, Asians at 3.1 percent, and Hispanics at 4.8 percent. The number of permanent job losers increased by 164,000 to reach 1.6 million in October, while the number of individuals on temporary layoff remained stable at 873,000. The number of long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks or more) saw little change at 1.3 million, accounting for 19.8 percent of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio remained largely unchanged at 62.7 percent and 60.2 percent, respectively. There were 4.3 million individuals employed part-time for economic reasons, which means they preferred full-time work but were working part-time due to reduced hours or the inability to find full-time employment. Additionally, there were 5.4 million persons not in the labor force who wanted a job, and 1.4 million of them were marginally attached to the labor force. These individuals wanted to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not actively searched for work in the past four weeks. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, remained steady at 416,000.

Establishment Survey Data

In October, total nonfarm payroll employment in the United States increased by 150,000 jobs, which was below the average monthly gain of 258,000 jobs over the previous 12 months. Job gains were observed in the health care sector (58,000 jobs), government (51,000 jobs), and social assistance (19,000 jobs). Construction employment also increased (23,000 jobs), while manufacturing employment declined by 35,000 jobs, primarily due to a strike-related decrease in motor vehicle and parts production. In the leisure and hospitality industry, employment remained relatively stable in October, with a gain of 19,000 jobs, whereas the industry had been adding an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the previous year. Employment in professional and business services showed minimal change in October (+15,000 jobs) and has seen little net change since May. Temporary help services employment remained largely unchanged (+7,000 jobs) but was still below its peak in March 2022 by 229,000 jobs.

Transportation and warehousing employment had little change in October (-12,000 jobs) and has shown little net change over the year. Information employment also saw little change (-9,000 jobs), with the motion picture and sound recording industry experiencing a continued decline (-5,000 jobs). Across various other major industries such as mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; and other services, employment remained relatively stable in October. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents (0.2 percent) to reach $34.00 in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 4.1 percent. For private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents (0.3 percent) to $29.19. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls slightly decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in October. In manufacturing, the average workweek remained largely unchanged at 40.0 hours, with overtime decreasing by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls, the average workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. Furthermore, there were revisions to the employment data for August and September, resulting in a combined decrease of 101,000 jobs when compared to previously reported figures. These revisions are a result of additional reports from businesses and government agencies and the recalculation of seasonal factors.

Disclaimer:

Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

Company Disclosure – The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.

2023-11-05T14:23:59-05:00