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U.S. unemployment rate holds steady at 3.8% in September 2023

October 06, 2023

In September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 jobs, surpassing the average monthly gain of 267,000 over the past year. Key sectors that experienced job growth included leisure and hospitality (+96,000), government (+73,000), health care, professional, scientific, and technical services, and social assistance. Leisure and hospitality, in particular, added a significant number of jobs, with food services and drinking places returning to pre-pandemic levels. Government employment also saw gains, primarily in state government education and local government, excluding education.

Household Survey Data

In September, major labor market indicators from the household survey remained stable. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent, with no significant change in the number of unemployed individuals, which stood at 6.4 million. Among various worker groups, unemployment rates for different demographics showed little to no change. Adult men, adult women, teenagers, Whites, Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics all experienced stable unemployment rates. The number of long-term unemployed individuals (jobless for 27 weeks or more) remained relatively unchanged at 1.2 million, accounting for 19.1 percent of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio remained the same, at 62.8 percent and 60.4 percent, respectively. The number of individuals employed part-time for economic reasons also showed little change, totaling 4.1 million. Additionally, the number of individuals not in the labor force but wanting a job remained consistent at 5.5 million. Among those not in the labor force who desired employment, the number of marginally attached individuals held steady at 1.5 million, with 367,000 classified as discouraged workers.

Establishment Survey Data

In September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported robust job growth in the nonfarm payroll employment sector, with an increase of 336,000 jobs, surpassing the 12-month average gain of 267,000. Significant gains occurred in several sectors, including leisure and hospitality (+96,000), government (+73,000), health care (+41,000), professional, scientific, and technical services (+29,000), and social assistance (+25,000). Notably, leisure and hospitality added a substantial number of jobs, particularly in food services and drinking places, which returned to pre-pandemic employment levels. Government employment saw an uptick, driven by gains in state government education and local government (excluding education). Health care, professional services, and social assistance also experienced job growth.

Transportation and warehousing employment remained relatively stable in September (+9,000), with gains in truck transportation offsetting the previous month’s decline. The information sector experienced little change (-5,000), primarily due to ongoing reductions in motion picture and sound recording industries related to labor disputes. In other major industries, including mining, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, financial activities, and other services, employment showed minimal fluctuations.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents (0.2 percent) in September, reaching $33.88, reflecting a 4.2 percent increase over the past 12 months. For private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents (0.2 percent) to $29.06. The average workweek for all employees remained steady at 34.4 hours, with little change in manufacturing and production and nonsupervisory employee workweeks. Finally, the report included revisions for July and August, reflecting a combined employment increase of 119,000 jobs higher than previously reported due to additional data and seasonal factor recalculations.

Disclaimer:

Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

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