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Government Operations Results for July 2019

Date: September 4, 2019

Government Operations Results for July 2019

For the period of April to July 2019, the GOJ reported Total Revenues & Grants of $202.06 billion, $3.95 billion more than the Government’s projection. Furthermore, year over year, this represents an increase of approximately 10.5% relative to the $182.87 billion recorded for the corresponding period in 2018. ‘Tax Revenue’ and ‘Non-Tax Revenue’ outperformed projections while ‘Capital Revenues’ and ‘Grants’ underperformed projections during the review period. ‘Tax Revenue’ amounted to $179.81 billion, $3.75 billion more than budgeted while ‘Non-Tax Revenue’ of $19.43 billion was reported; $589 million more than budgeted. ‘Grants’ underperformed budget by $157.6 million, amounting to $2.01 billion during the review period. Whereas, ‘Capital Revenues totalled $813.3 million, $233.60 million or 22.3% less than budgeted. Notably, no provisional amount was booked for ‘Bauxite Levy’ for the review period.


Expenditures

Total Expenditure for the period April to July 2019 amounted to $194.75 billion, $5.07 billion or 2.5% less than the budgeted $199.83 billion. Recurrent expenditure which totalled $179.15 billion, accounted for 91.99% of overall expenditures. Relative to projections, recurrent expenditure was $822.5 million (0.5%) less than budgeted. Of the recurrent expenditure categories for the review period, all categories with the exception of ‘Employee Contribution’ were above the budgeted amount. ‘Programmes’ which amounted to $65.21 billion, was $2.25 billion or 3.6% more than projected. ‘Compensation of Employees’ which amounted to $71.93 billion was $326.2 million or 0.5% more than projected. In addition, ‘Wages & Salaries’ amounted to $66.16 billion and was $839.1 million or 1.3% more than projected. Whereas, ‘Employee Contribution’ totalled $5.77 billion, 8.2% less than the budgeted amount of $6.28 billion.

As a result of the decrease in Expenditures for the period April to July 2019, the ‘Fiscal Surplus’ was $7.31 billion, relative to a projected deficit of $1.71 billion. Additionally, the primary balance for the period amounted to $49.32 billion, 12.9% more than budgeted.

As part of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), the GOJ estimates that the primary balance, as a performance criterion, should amount to $150.93 billion by the end of the 2019/2020 fiscal year. Up to the September quarter, a primary balance of $35.7 billion is estimated. As at the end of July 2019, this amounted to $49.32 billion. Tax Revenue is expected to total an estimated $242 billion by the end of the September quarter. The reported tax revenue for the end of July 2019 was $179.81 billion.

Disclaimer:

Analyst Certification -The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

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