November 27, 2019
Personal Income Booms in States With Decisive Role in 2020 Race
“Personal income growth has been surging in some U.S. political battlegrounds, including a third of the counties in Pennsylvania — which Donald Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 and may need to win re-election next year. In the president’s first two years in office, a total of 325 counties representing nearly 6% of the U.S. population experienced their best annualized income gains since at least 1992, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. And 127 of those are located in perennial swing states, including Ohio and Iowa. Bloomberg News analyzed per capita income growth in all U.S. counties going back to Bill Clinton’s first presidential term. While voters don’t normally track economic indicators very closely, Trump’s re-election campaign will focus on his economic record and appealing to those who are seeing the benefits of growth. “I would expect the strength of the economy to improve the president’s chance of winning Pennsylvania in 2020,” said Boyd William Nash-Stacey, chief economist for BBVA Compass. “However, incoming data appears to be less upbeat for these areas and the tailwinds present in 2017-2018 may be giving way to more persistent headwinds, signaling a less auspicious economic environment for the president,” he added.”
French Economy Shows Resilience as Consumer Confidence Rises
“French consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in November to reach its highest level in over two years, indicating domestic resilience of the euro area’s second-largest economy spurred by President Emmanuel Macron’s fiscal stimulus. Confidence hit its highest level since June 2017 — the month after Macron was elected — as households became more optimistic about their financial situation and their ability to make significant purchases. Fears of unemployment fell further below the long-term average and consumers’ assessment of living standards improved. Sentiment had tumbled during the Yellow Vest protests at the end of 2017. Since then, Macron has announced around 17 billion euros ($18.7 billion) of tax cuts, targeting low-income households in particular. Upbeat sentiment in France stands in contrast to a gloomy mood in Italy, where consumer confidence dropped sharply to the lowest level in more than two years. Both the assessment of the overall economy and its prospects fell.”
China’s Economy Slows for 7th Month, Early Indicators Show
“The earliest-available indicators of China’s economic performance point to a continued slowdown in November. Economic growth was already the slowest in almost three decades in the third quarter, and Bloomberg Economics’ gauge aggregating the earliest data from financial markets and businesses shows that continuing, with a worsening picture for trade, sales manager sentiment, and factory prices. While tensions with the U.S. have eased since the two sides announced talks toward a so-called “phase one” deal last month, a leading indicator for trade flows in Asia, South Korean exports, still contracted almost 10% in the first 20 days of November. That’s an improvement from September’s worst result in a decade, but it indicates that high-technology trade across the region is still struggling as the Christmas shopping season approaches. Profits at Chinese industrial firms fell the most on record in October, dropping 9.9% from a year ago, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. The decline in prices at the factory gate is one of the factors undercutting those profits and is expected to continue in November, according to a Bloomberg tracker of producer prices. The falling prices indicates domestic demand is weak. If those deflationary effects continue it will further hurt corporate profits at home and eventually drag down prices and profits overseas as well.”
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