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U.S. unemployment claims higher for the week ended July 18

July 23, 2020

The seasonally adjusted initial claims, advance estimate, rose to 1,416,000, an increase of 109,000 for the week ending July 18 from the prior week’s revised level, according to the U.S. Department of Labour (DOL). The prior week’s level was revised to 1,307,000 from 1,300,000 up by 7,000. In comparison to the previous week’s average, the 4-week moving average was 1,360,250, a decrease of 16,500. Moreover, the preceding week’s average was revised up by 1,750 from 1,375,000 to 1,376,750.

 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 11.1% for the week ending July 11, a 0.7% decline from the prior week’s revised rate. The preceding week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 percentage points from 11.9% to 11.8%. Moreover, DOL stated that, “advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 11 was 16,197,000, a decrease of 1,107,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 34,000 from 17,338,000 to 17,304,000.” Relative to last week’s revised average, the 4-week moving average decreased by 758,500 to 17,505,250. Notably, there was a downward revision in the preceding week’s average by 8,500 from 18,272,250 to 18,263,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

Based on the unadjusted advance estimate, there were 1,370,947 actual initial claims under state programs in the week ending July 18, a decrease of 141,816 (or -9.4%) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had anticipated a decline of 247,115 (or -16.3%) from the previous week. Moreover, for the week ending July 18, 49 states observed 974,999 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

During the week ending July 11, the advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate stood at 11.2%, a 0.7 percentage point increase relative to the previous week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs fell by 930,294 (or -5.4%) to 16,390,919 from a week earlier. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 190,343 (or 1.1%) from the previous week.

A total of 31,802,715 persons claimed benefits in all programs for the week ended July 4, a decline of 200,615 compared to the prior week.

Extended Benefits, during the week ending July 4, were accessible in the following 52 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virgin Islands, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

For the week ending July 11, 1,732 former Federal civilian employees claimed for UI benefits, an increase of 409 relative to the previous week, whereas 1,245 newly discharged veterans (+168) claimed for benefits.

However, for the week ending July 4, 15,098 former Federal civilian employees claimed for UI benefits, an increase of 952 relative to the previous week, whereas 14,052 newly discharged veterans (+1,260) claimed for benefits.

DOL noted that, “the week ending Jul 4, 48 states reported 13,179,880 individuals claiming Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits and 45 states reported 940,113 individuals claiming Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits.”

In the week ending July 4, Puerto Rico observed the highest insured unemployment rates of 26.0% followed by Nevada (21.3), Hawaii (20.7), Georgia (18.0), California (16.9), Louisiana (16.6), New York (16.1), Connecticut (15.4), the Virgin Islands (15.2), and Massachusetts (15.0).

The states that experienced the highest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 11 were Florida (+65,890), Georgia (+33,292), California (+20,123), Washington (+16,116), and Indiana (+6,258), while the largest decreases were in Maryland (-13,728), Texas (-11,583), New Jersey (-8,577), Michigan (-6,882), and Louisiana (-5,066).

Analyst Certification -The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

Company Disclosure -The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.

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